The Longevity Industry will be the Biggest and Most Complex Industry in Human History
The Longevity industry will dwarf all other
industries in both size and market
capitalization and will require unprecedented
sophistication in its approach for assessment
and forecasting from the start to neutralize
challenges and manifest opportunities
The Longevity Industry is not just about biotechnology and biomedicine. Rather, it consists of several distinct segments: Geroscience, Biomedicine, AgeTech and Finance. Despite this seemingly clear market segmentation, many of these sectors intersect with various domains of science and technology, such as advanced biomedicine, preventive medicine, digital health, AI, financial systems, pension systems and government national strategies.
One of the biggest challenges in assessing the Longevity industry is the extreme broadness of the sector. Hundreds of sectors, industries and domains of science and technology must be analyzed in order to obtain a concrete and comprehensive understanding of the dynamics, trends and direction of the industry. This situation is entirely unique to the Longevity industry. Due to this extreme level of complexity, realistic assessment and forecasting is extremely challenging, and the methods currently being applied for assessment of the biotech and biomedical industries are completely inadequate.
The Longevity Industry has both unprecedented levels of multidimensionality and intersectionality and unprecedented prospects for growth and profitability.
Currently, only the most advanced scientists work on the forefront of Longevity R&D. In the coming years entrepreneurs and investors will gravitate to the Longevity industry when they realize its extreme potential for profitability, and the fact that it is the most ethical form of business with the potential for the greatest positive impact for humanity.
The level of complexity also presents substantial risk given that it significantly complicates the ability of companies, investors, and even national governments to anticipate challenges (such as risk of fraud) and recognize opportunities.
These challenges will be addressed in national Longevity development strategies that various nations are currently devising in response to the pressures of the looming Silver Tsunam.
Although challenges to realistic assessment and forecasting are great, they are not insurmountable. Established practices for forecasting and assessment already exist in other complex high-tech industries, and progress in big data analysis and AI for modeling can be adapted for use in Longevity. It is precisely this mission - the formulation of relevant, quantitative, analytical frameworks for Longevity industry assessment, benchmarking, forecasting and optimization - that has been a central component of the mission of Deep Knowledge Ventures and it’s Longevity-focused analytical subsidiary, Aging Analytics Agency, for the past several years.
This is the first in a series of articles on the Global Longevity Industry which will provide an overview of the scope and dynamics of this area, discuss current challenges and opportunities, and introduce new approaches to tangible and relevant assessment and forecasting.
LONGEVITY INDUSTRY FRAMEWORK
The Longevity Industry has a broader scope than any other industry. A concrete understanding of hundreds of distinct sectors, industries, and domains of science and technology is required to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the industry's dynamics necessary to make optimal strategic decision making in the face of the sector's overwhelming complexity and multidimensionality.
LONGEVITY INDUSTRY LANDSCAPE
The Longevity Industry landscape has grown in the past 4 years from a neglected and underfunded domain of R&D into a towering industrial behemoth spanning thousands of active companies across almost every continent in the world. Today, its extreme trajectory of growth and diversification is unquestionable, which is exemplified most prominently by the fact that the topic of Longevity has in the past few years been embraced by the world’s top business and financial media brands, by large financial institutions and investment banks, and now, within just the past year, by conservative politicians and parliamentarians.
GEROSCIENCE R&D (Science of Aging)
The first sector of the Longevity industry consists of advanced biomedical approaches to understanding the underlying mechanisms of biological aging, and constructing therapeutics that act upon those mechanisms directly to slow the process of biological aging at its source. It is by necessity the earliest-stage segment of the industry, and the domain farthest away from market-readiness.
P4 MEDICINE (Personalized, Precision, Preventive and Participatory)
The second sector of the Longevity Industry consist of P4 (Personalized, Precision, Preventive, Participatory) Medicine. It consists of the leading edge of advanced biomedicine already at the level of practical, real-world implementation and use. It represents the ongoing shift away from treatment-based one-size-fits-all blockbuster drugs and towards increasingly personalized, precise, preventive, participatory treatments tailored to individual patient cases.
AI LONGEVITY CENTERS
As AI becomes increasingly integrated into every aspect of biomedical R&D and practical implementation of P4 medicine, the rate of progress is set to increase dramatically. In order to expedite this process and leverage the use of AI for Longevity and Preventive Medicine research to its maximum capacity, Deep Knowledge Ventures is currently supporting the establishment of two AI Centers for Longevity in Europe and Asia.
BIOMARKERS OF AGING
This shift from treatment to prevention is ultimately leading to a coming age of Precision Health, where patients are empowered with the tools necessary to become the CEOs of their own health through the application of P4 medicine in response to continuous monitoring of fluctuations in biomarkers of aging for the maintenance of the optimal state of health until the very end of life.
LONGEVITY AND THE AGETECH MARKET
The third sector of the Longevity Industry is the AgeTech market, which consists of all digital, IT and technologically-sophisticated but non-medical products and services that can improve quality of life, enhance psychological well being, mental functionality and neuroplasticity, and increase social activity in the elderly. Due to its reliance on completely market-ready technologies, it is one of the sub-sectors that will see the largest levels of growth and profitability on the shorter-term horizon.
LONGEVITY ADVANCING FINANCIAL INDUSTRY
The fourth sector of the Longevity Industry is the Longevity Financial Industry, which encompasses all the activities and efforts of large financial institutions to neutralize the economic issues of aging population, manifest the opportunities of Healthy Longevity, and enter new markets of AgeTech and WealthTech relating to the one billion people on retirement globally. In the coming years, this sector will become dominated by tradable financial instruments and novel financial derivatives tied to the Longevity Industry's companies, products, services and technologies.
SUPER COMPLEXITY - CHALLENGES AND ISSUES
The high degree of multidimensionality, intersectionality and overcomplexity of the Longevity Industry creates very tangible challenges for realistic and relevant industry assessment, benchmarking and forecasting. This is a very pressing issue considering that this high degree of complexity also creates intensified risks for fraud and other well-intentioned mistakes that could undermine the overall credibility of the industry as a whole.
CHALLENGES FOR GOVERNMENTS AND NATIONS
This extreme level of complexity poses unique and equally-pressing challenges for governments and nations, who are poised to either sink or swim in the face of the oncoming Silver Tsunami depending on how proactively they deploy broad nation-wide government-led programs to increase Healthy Longevity, decrease the gap between life expectancy and Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy (HALE), and neutralize the economic burdens of aging population. The extreme levels of multidimensionality of the Longevity Industry pose substantial challenges to the relevant and realistic formulation and execution of such National Longevity Development Plans.
THE NECESSITY FOR NOVEL METHODS OF ANALYTICS
The analytical methods that have proven adequate for biotech, advanced biomedicine, and related industries will not remaining relevant under the pressures of the Longevity Industry's broad scope and extreme levels of complexity and intersectionality. In order to conduct practical and applicable strategic decision making, industry players, as well as governments and nations, must adopt entirely novel approaches to analytics, assessment, and forecasting if they wish to neutralize the challenges of aging population and manifest the opportunities of Healthy Longevity.
TIMELINE AND FORECASTING
The challenges and opportunities described in this article are set to occur not in the distant future. Instead, they are poised to culminate within the next 7-10 years, which means that such novel forms of industry analytics need to be developed and adopted now in order for industry stakeholders and the governments of developed nations to act within their current window of opportunity, and to progress rather than stagnate under the oncoming wave of the Silver Tsunami.
AGENDA 2019 - 2020
Deep Knowledge Ventures will continue to support the ongoing expansion, development and optimization of the global Longevity Industry through its investment activities, the establishment of AI Centers for Longevity, and the launch of the Longevity-focused hybrid investment hedge fund Longevity.Capital. Meanwhile, its analytical subsidiaries Aging Analytics Agency and Deep Knowledge Analytics will continue to develop, expand and refine the relevance and sophistication of their analytical frameworks for Longevity industry assessment, benchmarking and forecasting, while also extending them to additional emerging domains of the Longevity industry, including the Longevity Financial Industry and government-led National Longevity Development Plans.
LONGEVITY INDUSTRY FRAMEWORK
Most people naturally equate the idea of Longevity with progress in the science of advanced biomedicine - the study of aging with the ultimate aim of delaying its diverse diseases. In reality Longevity consists of many more distinct and intersecting fields.
Progress in Longevity is no longer simply a question of progress in geroscience (the science of aging) or advanced biomedicine, but now is more driven by the synergetic convergence of intersection of multiple distinct technological sectors and sub-sectors. Throughout the production of its many industry analytical reports and special case studies on the Longevity Industry, Aging Analytics Agency has formulated a broad industry classification framework that categorizes the Longevity Industry into four distinct segments: Geroscience R&D, P4 Medicine, AgeTech and Novel Financial System.
If Longevity only consisted of biomedicine and there were not so many intersections with other industries, then analysis and forecasting might be a comparatively simple task, similar to the analysis of the current biotech industry. But in reality, Longevity inevitably involves a synergy between advanced biomedicine, AI, digital health, financial industry, pension and national healthcare systems, governmental initiatives and even political issues partially related to stagnating economies due to the Silver Tsunami , which together create a very diverse and dynamic ecosystem whose already-rapid pace of progress and diversification only continues to accelerate, creating challenges to concrete understanding and practical forecasting.
The Longevity Industry has the potential to
simultaneously deliver substantial ROIs while
providing more benefits to humanity than any
other industry in history.
LONGEVITY INDUSTRY LANDSCAPE
The Longevity industry has gone from an underrepresented field of R&D to the rapidly expanding and diversifying frontier of advanced biomedicine. In 2014, Dmitry Kaminskiy predicted the 2018 boom in Longevity Industry investments and activity four years in advance, noting the inevitability of its growth considering the impact it would have on global healthcare systems and the business models of modern medicine, its extreme prospects for profitability and the fact that it is the most ethical form of business, with the potential to simultaneously deliver substantial ROIs while providing more benefits to humanity than any other industry in history.
Today, its advanced dynamic of progress and its strong trajectory of growth and diversification is quite obvious, with thousands of Longevity companies active around the globe, dozens of Longevity-focused investment firms, and the fact that in more recent years, it has begin to be embraced by even the most conservative of entities, including top-tier business and finance media brands like The Economist, Financial Times, Bloomberg and others, by large financial institutions and investment banks (who now regularly host conferences and release analytical reports on the topic of Longevity for their institutional and HNWI clients), and even politicians and parliamentarians (the recent launch of the All-Party Parliamentary Group being perhaps the best example of the recent emergence of Longevity Politics).
The first segment of the Longevity Industry is Geroscience R&D - the segment of biomedical science and research that aims to treat the root causes of aging. Some of the most early-stage forms of geroscience attempt to treat aging as an engineering issue to be solved using advanced biomedical engineering. These areas are at the very forefront of biotech and biomedicine, and so even these alone require highly specialized approaches to assessment and forecasting, beyond those that have proven adequate for the biotech industry generally.
P4 medicine - preventive, personalized, precision and participatory medicine: leading edge technologies that have already achieved a state of market-readiness and clinical implementation.
This segment has a clear history of paradigm shifts toward greater precision, personalization, prevention and patient participation, driven forward and enabled by advances in biomedicine, data science and AI. For example, as AI for R&D in drug discovery becomes more sophisticated, drugs will become more customized to specific diseases and even specific patients. Drug development companies will transition from the current form of blockbuster drugs (standard drug formulations applicable to many millions of patients) to P4 medicine, tailoring drugs to specific patient cases based on age, gender, ethnicity, state of health and genetics.
The first and second “P” in P4 Medicine stand for personalized and precision, which refers to the drugs and treatments that will be designed and applied using precise, individually-tailored methods of dosing, cocktail compositions of micro-dosages, and efficient methods of delivery.
Such advances also represent a move toward greater prevention (the third “P” in P4 Medicine), and a shift away from reactionary treatment and towards optimized disease prevention applying micro-dosages of drugs, long before the underlying pathology develops into actual chronic disease.
Healthy Longevity means prevention rather than treatment, through the maintenance of optimal states of health via continuous monitoring of disease-associated biomarkers, and micro-adjustments in therapeutic, lifestyle and behavioral regimes to normalize those biomarkers.
The current state of medicine and healthcare is currently being disrupted by the application of P4 medicine, causing a shift away from one-treatment-fits-all blockbuster drugs and towards personalized, precision, preventive and participatory diagnostics, prognostics and therapeutics.
The fourth “P” in P4 Medicine stands for participatory, which refers to the increasingly active role that patients are taking in managing their own health, culminating in a situation where citizens are empowered with the tools, approaches and services capable of enabling continual micro-adjustments to their behavioral, lifestyle and therapeutic regimens in response to continuous AI-empowered monitoring of micro-changes in biomarkers that measure state of health and predict risk of diseases long before their actual onset and progression.
This paradigm is described very precisely in the book “The Patient as CEO: How Technology Empowers the Healthcare Consumer” by Robin Farmanfarmanian.
These changes are already being embraced by the medical communities and healthcare systems of progressive countries. In coming years, as P4 becomes the new norm, the new definition of failure will be when patients are forced to get doctors involved. In a world in which P4 medicine triumphs, citizens will have no need to engage with doctors until the very end of life.
P4 (Personalized, Preventive, Precision and Participatory) Medicine = Precision Health. Advances in P4 Medicine will converge and culminate in the emergence of a new paradigm of Precision Health which denotes the continuous stabilization of health and the maximum-obtainable maintenance of a young biological age via the routine application of P4 medicine in response to ongoing fluctuations in biomarkers of aging and health.
The term Precision Health is becoming increasingly common, and refers to the idea that the ideal and most comprehensive case of P4 Medicine will naturally and inevitably lead to a state of Precision Health, where diseases and other sub-optimal forms of health are delayed for as long as possible, until near the very end of life.
The role of AI in P4 medicine is already remarkably apparent, especially in places such as the UK, USA, Switzerland and Singapore. For example we have seen very proactive efforts by the UK government, both through their AI Industrial Grand Challenge and their aging Industrial Grand Challenge, to rapidly apply AI to preventive medicine, advanced biomedicine and digital health, and the recent establishment of the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Longevity, where Aging Analytics Agency was proactively involved.
Furthermore, its high degree of complexity necessitates not only innovative frameworks for general benchmarking and forecasting, but also for the general assessment of its technologies’ and therapies basic safety and efficacy. Take, for example, the common use of model organisms to assess the safety and efficacy of therapeutics.